538 presidential polls

FiveThirtyEight 1 day ago · Trump has a slight edge in the polls, but the fundamentals favor Biden. Jan 4, 2023 · Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. more likely trump. It shows former President Donald Jan 4, 2023 · Download. Nate Silver founded and was the editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight. Use the sort to view the polls in different ways. Scott —. Select a state name to see its presidential 1 day ago · Download the data. Mar 13, 2024 · There is still time for President Joe Biden to improve in the polls. Apr 12, 2023 · PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY EMILY SCHERER / GETTY IMAGES. Download. Biden FOX News Trump 50, Biden 45 Trump +5 Virginia: Trump vs. Map Legend. 2 days ago · Updating average for each candidate in 2024 presidential polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects. Apr 4, 2024 · In 2020, 61 percent of voters between the ages of 18 and 29 voted for Biden, according to our analysis of Census Bureau data, polling and the statewide results of the election. ”. Research by Jennifer Kanjana and Dhrumil Mehta. FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis - hard numbers - to tell compelling stories about elections, politics and American society. Design and development by Ryan Best, Aaron Bycoffe, Holly Fuong, Christopher Groskopf, Ritchie King, Ella Koeze, Dhrumil Mehta, Jasmine Mithani, Mary Radcliffe, Anna Wiederkehr and Julia Wolfe. Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email. Feb 22, 2024 · 538’s Pollster Ratings Based on the historical track record and methodological transparency of each polling firm’s polls. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. 3 days ago · Updating average for each candidate in 2024 presidential polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects. This page displays the current 270toWin Polling Average for each state. Sort by date. Polling averages are adjusted based on state and national polls, which means candidates’ averages can shift even if no new polls have been added to this page. Pollsters that did not release any horse-race polls within three weeks of an election since 1998 do not have a grade and are treated as a C+ by the grade filter. 1 day ago · Updating average for each candidate in 2024 presidential polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects. Polling conducted for the 2024 President election in National. Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major. In November 2023, we made changes to the way we 1 day ago · When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Design and development by Ryan Best, Aaron Bycoffe, Holly Fuong, Christopher Groskopf, Ritchie King, Ella Koeze, Dhrumil Mehta, Jasmine Mithani 3 days ago · When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Design and development by Jay Boice, Aaron Bycoffe, Matthew Conlen, Reuben Fischer-Baum, Ritchie King, Ella Koeze, Allison McCann, Andrei Scheinkman and Gus Wezerek. Click on each state -- or the state squares under the map -- to assign it to a candidate. Forecast models by Nate Silver. He is the author of “The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail — But Some Don’t Jun 5, 2024 · When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast. Right now, Biden is favored to 2 days ago · When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. 4 days ago · An updating average of 2020 presidential general election polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency. Stay up to date on all the latest 2024 election and state of the union polls. Statistical model by G. While former President Donald Trump has a lead in most key swing states, they are close enough that a small amount of movement — or the polls being a little too favorable to Republicans — could result in President Joe Biden’s reelection. Toss-Up 1 day ago · When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Build your projection using 2024 CNN ratings or past results, or start from scratch. Jun 4, 2024 · When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. 1 day ago · The 2024 presidential election starts out in our forecast as a toss-up. That 1 day ago · When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. 5% chance of winning that state. 95% OF AVERAGES PROJECTED TO FALL IN THIS RANGE. 2 days ago · Idaho Democratic Caucus Results. Notice any bugs or missing polls? . Today 538 published our official forecast for the 2024 presidential election. Use the buttons below the map to share your forecast or embed it into a web page. In the latter scenario, if there are multiple qualifying polls on the same calendar date as the oldest poll used, those will also be included. Apr 21, 2023 · Nate Silver. The polls-only model relied only on polls from a particular state, while the polls-plus model was based on state polls, national polls and endorsements. While we’ve 2 days ago · When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Includes links to all available 2024 polls and polling averages. FiveThirtyEight applied two separate models to forecast the 2016 presidential primary elections – polls-only and polls-plus models. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here . 1 day ago · Download the data. June 11. Create a specific match-up by clicking the party and/or names near the electoral vote counter. If the 2024 general election were held tomorrow, President Joe Biden would probably lose to former President Donald Trump. Feb 21, 2024 · According to 538’s polling averages, Trump leads the presidential polls by an average of 2 points, but the generic congressional ballot polls are deadlocked. 2024 Presidential Election Polls. Jan 10, 2023 · Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Trump and Biden are tied in 538's new election forecast. It includes all national-level results on this question which meet CNN’s standards for reporting 3 days ago · When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. Each district in states that split electoral votes* NE 1st 2nd 3rd ME 1st 2nd. toss-up. Read more Download the data See the latest polls 1 day ago · When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. 2 days ago · Download the data. The average methodology is summarized below the table. Where that is not applicable, the most recent 2024 presidential election poll is used. Eastern. Dec 21, 2022 · Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Jun 28, 2023 · References Presidential Approval Tracker / 2024 Republican Presidential Primary Polls / 2024 Presidential Candidate Favorability Trackers The Details Almost sin… 3 days ago · When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. m. Feb 24, 2022 · First, it is comprehensive: It lists virtually every public general-election poll for president, Senate, House and governor, virtually every public presidential primary poll, and virtually every Nov 8, 2016 · Poll results aggregated from HuffPost Pollster, RealClearPolitics, polling firms and news reports. Various FiveThirtyEight polling averages under our old and new methodologies, as of June 27 at 8 p. 1 day ago · When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Notice any bugs or missing polls? 1 day ago · Updating average for each candidate in 2024 primary polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects. They show incumbent President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump essentially tied in national polls and Trump with a tenuous lead in key swing states. Read the full methodology here. Pence —. The map at this URL was originally created for the 2020 election as a Trump 1 day ago · Arizona: Trump vs. Jan 29, 2019 · Presidential election polls for 2020 are rolling in, and we’re collecting them all in one place for you! You can check out the latest on our polls page, which we’ll update every day with polls 3 days ago · When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. 3 days ago · When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Jun 1, 2024 · When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Mr Biden won a seat in the Senate at the age of 30 and held it for 2 days ago · When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Gain valuable insights into the evolving political landscape and stay ahead of the latest trends. Click states on this interactive map to create your own 2024 election forecast. 3 days ago · Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Read more about the methodology. 2024 Key Races. Notice any bugs or missing polls? 1 day ago · Hutchinson —. Sep 11, 2023 · Filed under 2024 Election. And what we’ve seen is that 2 days ago · When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. May 24, 2024. @natesilver538. Of course, that’s still a 6 Nov 3, 2020 · Candidates can't be selected if they start off with less than a 1. Joe Biden received 95%, winning all 23 pledged delegates. Suarez —. more likely biden. Notice any bugs or missing polls? 1 day ago · When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Joe Biden, at 81, will be the oldest ever major-party presidential candidate, breaking his own record set in 2020. In November 2023, we made changes to the way we 2 days ago · Download the data. Track President Joe Biden’s average approval and disapproval ratings in national polls over time. Jun 28, 2023 · FiveThirtyEight’s old and new polling averages are a close match. The chart below tracks President Joe Biden’s approval and disapproval ratings across polls. Elliott Morris. Biden FOX News Biden 48, Trump 48 Tie Florida: Trump 1 day ago · Updating average for each candidate in 2024 presidential polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects. 2 days ago · Updating average for each candidate in 2024 primary polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects. In November 2023, we made changes to the way we calculate our polling averages. If there are fewer than five, the window is expanded to 30 days or five polls, whichever comes first. The most recent polls for the 2024 presidential election. Ramaswamy —. When you choose the winner in one place, our model updates its projections everywhere else. Biden FOX News Trump 51, Biden 46 Trump +5 Nevada: Trump vs. Find the most recent results from CNN. Get caught up on the most important polling for the most consequential races of 2024. May 31, 2024 · President. 34 percent voted for Trump, and 5 percent voted for independents. 3 days ago · Download the data. It will take 270 electoral votes to win the 2024 presidential election. Jan 10, 2023 · Download. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Biden or Trump, deepening as the likelihood of winning increases: Light (65%+), Medium (80%+), Dark (95%+). Polling averages are adjusted based on state and national polls, which means candidates’ averages can shift even if no new polls have been added to 3 days ago · When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Winner picked. 4 days ago · When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. 2 days ago · When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Today, FiveThirtyEight is launching our national polling average for the 2024 Republican presidential primary. Notice any bugs or missing polls? 3 days ago · When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. But if turnout among the group drops by 10 percentage points and third-party voting increases by 4 Apr 24, 2019 · Over the past few weeks, FiveThirtyEight has explored who led in early primary polls of presidential cycles from 1972 to 2016 and who went on to win the nomination. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. The model builds on our general election Apr 25, 2024 · It's the moment you've all been waiting for: Today, 538 launched our interactive polling averages for the 2024 presidential general election. Trump has a slight edge in the polls, but the fundamentals favor Biden. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. bu kc jc co si yf xe hn xh kl